Demand for Chemotherapy Will Double Globally by 2040 — What Will Happen to Cancer Patients?

The leading reasons for the increase, according to study authors, are both population growth and the increase in cancer rates in countries which may not have access to chemotherapy supplies

Lead study author Brooke Wilson, MSC, of the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, told SurvivorNet that she hopes the study’s findings will encourage health officials to start preparing for the increased demand immediately. “The information in our paper should prompt officials to review current numbers of cancer physicians to deliver chemotherapy in their own countries and estimate the expected gap by 2040,” she said. “Without strategic investment in infrastructure and personnel, we are likely to fail to meet the needs of patients worldwide in the coming decades.”

Although the actual numbers of patients who will need chemotherapy are just projections, they are based on statistics collected in world-wide, long-range studies. The findings present two problems: the demand for chemotherapy drugs themselves, and the demand for physicians to prescribe and administer these drugs.

Study authors estimate that 65,000 doctors were needed to deliver chemotherapy in 2018 — and they expect that number to grow to 100,000 by 2040. Those numbers, of course, depend on workload — but still, that’s a lot of qualified cancer doctors. By the study authors’ estimates, the United States already has enough working cancer physicians to meet the 2040 demands — but many other countries around the world, countries that do not have quite as much income, are not so fortunate. In 2018, study authors found that about 63 percent of people in the world who needed chemotherapy were living in low- or middle-income countries — that number is expected to rise to 67 percent by 2040.

So what can be done about these disparities? Dr. Wilson is calling for officials to use the study’s findings to estimate their needs, and plan accordingly — if possible.  “The rising global cancer burden is undoubtedly one of the major health crises of today,” Dr. Wilson said in a press release for the study. “Strategies are urgently needed to equip the global health workforce to enable safe treatment of current and future patients … Countries and institutions should use our data to estimate their future cancer physician workforce requirements and chemotherapy needs and plan national, regional, and global strategies to ensure all those who need it will have access to chemotherapy treatment.”

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